Money Management theory

[Mosi]

Some people are all for using Money Management and others bet their entire bankroll in a particular day. I have seen some on the Forum bet 1 game and some bet the entire card every day. I thought I would share the following Money Management theory that was shared with me several years ago. Perhaps it will help a few players extend and enjoy their football season. I encourage veteran players to add your thoughts and other tips.

1) DEFINE YOUR BANKROLL... It does not matter how small or large the amount is. Bankroll should be defined as a sum of money which, if you were to lose, would not alter your current chosen lifestyle. Each sport you wager on should have a different bankroll. For this information we will assume a bankroll of $1000.

2) BE CONSISTENT... You should wager a constant predetermined percentage of your bankroll on each game in a betting period. (For example purposes we will use 5% or $50 a game). Betting period is usually defined as a day.

3) LIMIT YOUR EXPOSURE... Never wager more than 10 games per betting period. This ensures that never more than 50% of your bankroll is exposed at any given time.

4) STAY THE COURSE... Continue to wager 5% ($50) of your original bankroll per play until your current bankroll either increases 50% (up to $1500) or decreases 50% (down to $500).

5) LOSING... If your bankroll decreases 50% (you lose 10 units or $500), reduce your wager 50% (from $50 a game to $25 a game)until your bankroll returns to its original level. This important safeguard insures that you do not "chase" during a cold streak. "Chasing" is the most common mistake of the average player and the surest way to lose your entire bankroll. By reducing your wager 50% it guarantees you to stay in action until you have either regained your momentum or lost 30 units ("0" bankroll). If you lose 30 units you should probably think about finding another hobby or money making opportunity.

6) WINNING... Let's assume that your handicapping skills have ballooned your bankroll 50% or 10 net wins (up to $1500). Step up a level and begin to wager 50% more per game (up from $50 a game to $75 a game). If your winning ways should continue and your original bankroll doubles ($2000), you would then wager twice your original amount or now $100 a game. Continue to increase your wager 50% with every 50% increase in your bankroll.

7) TAKING PROFITS AFTER A LOSING STREAK... Any time you have more than doubled your original bankroll, then lose back 1/3 of your bankroll, take profits, and return to your original bankroll. (For example: Your original bankroll of $1000 has grown to $2400. But a losing streak decreases back to $1600. The $800 difference from your high point represents a loss of 1/3 your bankroll, but the $1600 in your bankroll still represents $600 of profit. Take the $600 of profit and return to your original bankroll of $1000. You will have cut short a losing streak and taken profits. Congratulations.

8) TAKING PROFITS AFTER A WINNING STREAK... During the course of a season we are all subject to winning streaks which are mostly the result of a number of close pointspread wins. It is at these times when we feel like we will never have another losing day. WRONG, your luck will turn. So here are two more rules to help lock in profits:

8A) Take profits from a current winning streak any time you have won 80% or more of your most recent 20 plays (16-4 or better). You are unconscious if you have done this. Take the profit and return to your bankroll level before the 20 game hot streak.

8B) Take profits any time you have won 75% or more of your last 30 plays (23-7 or better). Again, take profitss and return to your bankroll before the 30 game streak began.


It is all about having action, but more importantly, about winning money. I hope this is helpful to some on the Forum.

As always best of luck. Enjoy the Football Season.

 

[RPM]

good post. i put a copy of this in offshore forum to get further discussion on it...

 

[mhk]

Sound advice.. Although I think smaller is better (in terms of per game %).. I prefer to "cash out" after 50% profit, keeping same bankroll (in theory)..good post..

 

[ATX]

where did all the threads go about this in the handicapping zone???

there was a really good writeup with a ton of responses, actually there were 2. I think it finished up during basketball playoffs.

Cant find it.

 

[dimeplayersonly]

MOSI...........very sound advice.....

lets talk about

#5..losing

this opens up an area in gambling that is overlooked by too many people, eager to focus on the numbers part of betting
stats, trends, percentages, value ect.....

over the years i have booked all types of bettors, from the squarest of square to the sharpest bettors in the game.....and the one element that i see every year, the one that keeps a decent handicapper from winning is LACK OF DISCIPLINE.............when it comes to #5

when a person starts losing, the psychological aspect of gambling, outweighs everything else........unless its checked very quickly he will not be successfull...i have seen players that on the surface, followed everyone of your rules, except the one rule that as a bookmaker think is numero-uno....

self-discipline, cutting loses, the ability to pull up during a losing streak.........

when a persons best bets of the week start getting beat by "bad bounces" add up, its natural to start second guessing yourself

everybody preaches discipline, but the fact of the matter is that when your put in that position (losing) alot of people dont have it.......

 

[CAL_BEAR]

Thank You MOSI...Getting ready to take the plunge this weekend, and will follow your outline, and the advise of the others in this post, to the "Letter" I will be learning as I go, only NFL, and will be posting in this forum regularly for advise...LOL! Thanks everyone for your help!

 

[Mosi]

Good luck Cal Bear. As dimepalyersonly said, number five is the most important piece of this puzzle. The urge to chase after losing is sometimes unbearable. You just want to back to where you were before you lost so bad. Like the rule says, if you lose 30 net games in my example, get out and forget about gambling. I have seen it screw up too many people's lives, and I have danced with the Devil a few times myself in the past 15 years.

Good luck. I do not have a ton of posts, but a lot of experience, as many do on this site.

 

[WildBill]

As you move up and get more successful, you most definitely have to cut your bet size. To bet 5% is very dangerous, if not crazy. Even the absolute best handicappers out there can go periods where they lose 10 units, that is nothing more than two bad football weekends in a row or 3 bad days in a daily sport. When you are starting out and betting off a small bankroll this is fine, but know yourself and your tolerance for risk. As the best bankroll experts say, once you get a bankroll that really means something to you, that you couldn't easily replace if you lost it, that is the time you have to start working to protect it. Those that are good at this and have experience will tell you never more than 2% a play, if not less. Since this is aimed at beginners I will say its a long time until you reach that point, but hopefully not too long.

And one other thing, while there is something to be said about straight percentage betting with daily adjustments, I generally think its best to stick to a flat bet amount based on percentage of bankroll and stick there until you reach a level which could sustain an additional round number for bets, say you bet $100 now, wait until you have a BR that could sustain $150 before moving up. Don't mess around with $110 then $120, etc, this game just has too much fluctuation and you get on too many good and bad streaks. If you fluctuate you find that you are betting less on winners and more on losers. Think about that, in that method your biggest bet to any given moment in time will always be a loser and your smallest bet always a winner.

 

[Mosi]

Wild Bill, I appreciate your input into the thread. The 5% was stated for example purposes. I do see it as a maximum and would not bet more than that per game.

With that being said, yes, even the best handicappers can lose 10 units and that is why you cut your wagers in half at that point. Thus ensuring that you must lose 30 units before you tap out. If you lose 30 net units, you are not an elite gambler or really any type of gambler.

It is up to each person to decide what is a bankroll "that really means something to you". That could be defined as $500, $5000, $50000 or maybe half a million dollars. I will leave it up to a player to decide what is comfortable for them while suggesting to not go over 5%. I believe as a player becomes more astute and begins to take look at it more as a business venture that they will not find value in many games on a daily basis. For instance, I think it is laughable how much value many people find in the NFL. If you are betting 6 games in the NFL on any given weekend you are asking to get your but kicked.

To your last point, we totally agree. I think you may have misunderstood the rule above. Rule #4 states to bet 5% ($50 per play) of your bankroll until you have increased or decreased your roll 50%. If it went up 50% you would move to playing $75 a game and if went down (lost 10 units) you would cut back to $25 a play.

The number one rule for a gambler is to be disciplined and consistent. Most people will not tap out if they chose to follow the rules and play 5%. They will tap out because they chase when losing.

Nevertheless we are pretty much on the same page. I posted this to give some who have no clue something to base their gambling exploits on. I do not see a whole lot of information shared on the Forum about money management in general. And if you watch some of the posters, who many consider "top people on this site" you will see many post an unbelievable numbers of plays on a daily basis with an unbelievable amount of units risked. It does not help new people seeking information to see someone betting 100 units on 15 games when that individuals unit and bankroll are not defined.

Sincerely appreciate the input because as I said, it is only one money management theory. It has worked wonders for me since I began following it four years ago.

 

[WildBill]

30 unit losses might not happen, but the reason why you have a bigger BR goes beyond that. As I said, if you are just starting out and playing with a small BR relative to your own earning power/disposable income then the percentage isn't a big issue. When things get heavier, when the BR isn't easily replaced, that is when you have to switch gears. And when you do that get far more than 30 units. The reason why you do it is that your sanity will be damaged when you get near the end. The best handicappers generally do have -20 unit runs every year and -30 unit runs every 3-5 years. Now note -20 units isn't hard to do because it can easily happen after you run +15 units over a time. If you have a 30 unit BR and you are down to say 8 units, you just aren't a competitor unless you are a rare bird. People that have lost most of their money don't perform at their best so having more units than you will ever really need is important. That mental cushion is so important, its a lesson I want everyone to know before they ever get involved in sports, before they ever really need it. Going broke might be a good long-term lesson, but its something I think most people would be better off not having to go through.

 

[Mosi]

I understand your where you are coming from and agree that when the stakes become higher a smaller percentage of bankroll makes sense.

You live in Vegas. Is this how you make your living? Let me know. Thanks.